New Rally - Latest Stock Market Rallies

[Modee]

After some problems and re-bottoming out last week, it seems that we are in the midst of a new rally. This one might hold for a while.

[Kool_MD]

false rally?

We are in a bear market rally for sure. Similar to the one in 1930. When the crash resumes and the third wave down of five waves begins in a couple of months it will be the steepest stock collapse in 300 years. What makes me say this? The same analysis that for example predicted the first wave down of this 5 wave bear market - before Oct 07. It also able to predict the subsequent subwaves along the way. In other words, we are able to know where exactly where we are within this current wave 2 up.

It's called the Elliott Wave Principle. Also, the new field of socionomics, which will eventually revolutionize the social sciences.

To protect yourself from the 'Deflationary' crash, read Conquer the Crash, by Robert Prechter.

[Modee]

I am certain the market will have its ups and downs before true recovery sets in. I wouldn’t call this a sucker’s rally, but I don’t think it is all up from here.

My primary reasoning is just that the economy is still bad. Everywhere I go, most retail stores are near devoid of customers, stores themselves have abandoned locations, my residential rental units I have I can’t seem to rent out lately, people I know in the labor related fields tell me business is very slow, and from what I understand, it’s still hard as hell to get a loan. Until the country and economy get better, how could the stock market possibly keep going up?

[Kool_MD]

Well, naturally I wouldn't disagree that things aren't good. And I don't mean to talk authoritatively, but most don't understand how bad it is, or more imprtantly how bad it will get. We haven't had a deflationary spiral crash for 70 years, so there is no living memory. This is why for example many are going with the 70s template of the inflationary model.

Most importantly Modee, when you learn about the theory of socionomics, you come to appreciate that 'fundamentals' are NOT what is behind market behaviour.

If I were in real estate I'd be selling now, and be buying back a few years from now after prices come down 90% off their bubble peak, as they did in the 30s.

[Modee]

I really can't agree with a lot of what you say, but that doesn't mean I am right.

But in my opinion:
Over time, fundamentals are ALL that matter in the stock market. Over time, a fundamentally unsound company's stock WILL go down.

Now what you are doing, and what I am talking about here with reference to stock trading - agreed - is not based on fundamentals. However, the difference between me and most stock traders is that I will not even touch a fundamentally unsound stock - any stock with negative EPS I will not touch, for example. This way, even if I get caught in a bad trade over time my stock will go up. Garbage stocks may go up in the short term, but never for long unless the company itself turns around.

Also, over time, real estate WILL go up, simply because land is a scarce commodity. And the best pieces of land - for example in California, ocean front, or in very expensive controlled communities - go up the most. From what I know, we had some great highs in R.E. in the mid to late 80s, but by the very late 80s and early 90s real estate prices, especially in very expensive homes, were literally halved. And yet eventually we came to sky highs that made the high prices of the 80s seem cheap.

Over time, Quality goes up.

[Modee]

Like I said, over time Quality goes up
THE MARKETS: STOCKS & BONDS; Led by Intel, Stocks Rise as S.& P. 500 and Nasdaq Hit Records - The New York Times
this rally is genuine, and although there will be ups and downs, doom and gloom forever is not in the cards.

[Modee]

Stock market oversold?

A friend of mine feels that the market is due for another correction. No real basis for this, just his gut feeling.

Again, I suppose it all comes down to whether economic revival is really coming around, or if the economy is still in the doldrums.

[Modee]

Bac

Trying to get above 18. If it breaks that - look out!

And no, as I have said all along - this is no false rally. Rocketing still!

[Modee]

We have had good rallies going - for some stocks anyway, over the past few years, and lately too. AAPL is a good example.

People, like my friend noted above, who have been predicting a massive correction have been proved wrong so far.

[Modee]

Stock market still doing well over all, despite recent drops.

[Modee]

DOW has been doing a shuffle between 17K and 18K for a while now

For some time now, the DOW keeps trying to break above 18K, AND STAY THERE! It is having, so far, a hard time STAYING above 18,000, even if it doesn't seem to be having such a hard time breaking above it.

Once it gets above 18K, lately anyway, it tends to shuffle on back down towards 17K, or even a tad below, and then SHOOTS on back towards 18K, until the next shuffle on down! I call this up down up down up down 17K to 18K to 17K to 18K to17K to 18K shuffle, the Mississippi half step uptown toodle-oo!

Jokes aside, as soon as the market starts coming down from 18K DOW, the naysayers offer up their "the crash is here" advice (in much the same way that the Jehovah's Witnesses and the like keep telling us that "the end is near"). Well, just as 1975 came and passed and we're all (well, most of us anyway) still here, so has the DOW come on downnnn! from 18,000 all the way to below 17,000 and yet it still came riiiight on back UP to 18,000 again.

Now, people have come up with all sorts of theories and offered various external events that justify or explain WHY the DOW went up or went down, but the OVER ALL fact of the matter is just that when it gets above 18K, people get nervous and look for some excuse to sell off, and when we get too low and close to 17K, people look for the slightest provocation to buy buy buy! (on the dip) Simple as that.

Today, March 25, 2015, was a classic example. On March 18, 2015, the Fed pretty much signaled that no interest rates were imminent, and the market roared on up above 18K again, and stayed there, until today - for no apparent reason, it went on down -292 points to close at three hundred points or so below 18K. Well, the REASON it fell, was JUST BECAUSE the markets, given the world economy, aren't READY to shoot well on past 18K to the next milestone, of, say...19K DOW.

But, being an optimist and believing in the over all state of the world and the growth in the world economies, I do believe that once we get the downward cycle of this half step toodle-oo out of the way, and HEAD ON BACK above 18K, and then maybe DO THE CYCLE a couple or few more times, that EVENTUALLY we WILL get to new record highs for the stock market.

No, the end is not here (or near). Just a necessary cycle in profit taking, which will take us, eventually, onwards and up!

[Modee]

The DOW has been above 18K for a bit now, but as I've said before, the economy just isn't strong enough to justify a run to 19K. Inevitably, as we get above 18K DOW we get top heavy and we run back down, which is what is happening today, with a DOW drop of over two hundred at the moment.

[Modee]

August 26, 2015: DOW closes UP +619, Nasdaq UP + 191.05 - this rally had LEGS on it, and stocks closed at their highs for the day.

We are still majorly below where we were a month ago, but this was a good day.

[Modee]

First week of the year - 2016, major stock market correction in progress.

Hard to imagine it getting much worse, we should be roaring by next week!

[Modee]

It started to get better, now worse. We're in a bear cycle where we move forward one step only to fall back two. Hope the cycle breaks as the weak hands sell out today and we get back to the bull run next week.